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Analysis & Perspectives

The Signal, Not the Noise.

Original analysis on the geopolitical forces reshaping global business. Trade, security, energy, and democracy — the four fault lines of our era.
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  • Energy
  • Democracy
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A curated perspective for leaders who want frameworks, not hot takes. Published when it matters — not on a schedule that serves the algorithm.
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Featured Analysis

Long-Form Insights.

Deep analysis for leaders who need more than a headline. These pieces take time to read — and save time in the boardroom.
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  • Featured
  • Trade
  • < 1
  • November 18, 2024
  • Vol. 12
The Tariff Trap: Why the New ProtectionismWill Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
The political logic of tariffs is seductive — protect jobs, punish rivals, project strength. But the economic and geopolitical reality is far more complex. As the US, EU, and China race toward economic nationalism, the collateral damage will fall hardest on the middle powers — including Canada — that built their prosperity on open trade. This is a framework for understanding what comes next.
Trade Policy
US-China
Canada
Supply Chains
Picture of David Oliver
David Oliver

Minerva Strategy

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  • Security
  • < 1
NATO’s Credibility Problem: Why the Alliance’s Deterrence Posture Is Being Tested in Ways That Matter to Business
  • Energy
  • < 1
The Energy Transition Is a Geopolitical Event: What Boards Are Missing About the Race for Critical Minerals
Recent Analysis

Latest Perspectives.

Shorter-form analysis published as events unfold. Signal over noise, always.
  • Trade
CUSMA at Risk: What a Second Trump Term Means for Canadian Trade Policy
The renegotiation of CUSMA is no longer a hypothetical. Canadian executives need a contingency framework now, not after the announcement.
  • Read
  • < 1
  • Democracy
Democratic Backsliding Is a Business Risk: A Framework for Boards That Are Still Ignoring It
When institutions weaken, contracts become less reliable, regulations more arbitrary, and markets less predictable. This is not a political opinion — it is a risk management reality.
  • Read
  • < 1
  • Security
The Arctic Is Not a Metaphor: Why Canada’s Northern Sovereignty Is a Corporate Governance Issue
As Russia and China increase Arctic activity, the governance vacuum in Canada’s north is becoming a material risk for resource companies, infrastructure investors, and financial institutions.
  • Read
  • < 1
  • Energy
Middle East Escalation and the Oil Price Ceiling: What the Market Is Mispricing
Markets are treating the current Middle East conflict as a contained event. History suggests this is a dangerous assumption. Here is what the energy price models are missing.
  • Read
  • < 1
  • Trade
China’s Economic Coercion Playbook: A Pattern Recognition Guide for Canadian Executives
From Australian barley to Lithuanian goods to Canadian canola — Beijing’s coercion toolkit is well-documented. The question is whether your board has mapped your exposure.
  • Read
  • < 1
  • Democracy
The 2024 Election Supercycle: What 70 National Elections Mean for Global Business Strategy
More people voted in 2024 than in any year in history. The results are reshaping trade relationships, regulatory environments, and geopolitical alignments simultaneously.
  • Read
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The Four Fault Lines

Where Minerva Focuses.

Every geopolitical event that matters to business can be traced to one or more of these
four structural tensions. This is the analytical framework that guides all Minerva work.

Trade
Tariffs, sanctions, supply chain fragmentation, and the end of frictionless globalization. The rules of commerce are being rewritten in real time.

14 pieces

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Security
NATO, Arctic sovereignty, hybrid warfare, and the erosion of the security architecture that underpins global commerce. Conflict is no longer distant.
11 pieces
  • Explore
Energy
The transition to clean energy is a geopolitical event. Critical minerals, energy security, and the race to control the inputs of the next industrial era.
9 pieces
  • Explore
Democracy
Democratic backsliding, institutional erosion, and the 2024 election supercycle. When governance weakens, markets become unpredictable.
8 pieces
  • Explore
Archive

All Insights.

The complete archive of Minerva analysis. Every piece is written to remain relevant beyond the news cycle.

42 pieces published

Trade

The Tariff Trap: Why the New Protectionism Will Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
  • < 1

Trade

The Tariff Trap: Why the New Protectionism Will Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
  • < 1

Energy

The Tariff Trap: Why the New Protectionism Will Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
  • < 1

Security

The Tariff Trap: Why the New Protectionism Will Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
  • < 1

Trade

The Tariff Trap: Why the New Protectionism Will Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
  • < 1

Democracy

The Tariff Trap: Why the New Protectionism Will Hurt the Countries That Embrace It Most
  • < 1
Go Deeper

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